The Great Transition
This year’s Delphi Economic Forum – the 9th since the inception of this venture to bring together people so as to explore in depth current affairs but also permanent subjects of interest – was devoted to ‘The Great Transition”. Some of the participants took the liberty to raise the question “transition to what?”.
In their different ways, most of the panels dealing with geopolitics ended pointing to (differing, but similar) degrees of uncertainty. Participants from Eastern Europe were quite grounded in their approach, however intense their feelings about the ongoing war in Ukraine; in contrast, participants from the US and the UK were in more of a fighting mood – with the need to counter Russia first and foremost. From European shores, the degree of realism was more pronounced. Still, no credible way-out of the current stalemate was pointed at.
On matters economic, the perspectives of the global economy were viewed in a carefully positive light – the European end of things less so. Nobody felt at ease to divine – notwithstanding the closeness of the Oracle – when the relaxation of monetary policy/interest rate cuts would start in earnest.
As to the Greek economy, the feelings expressed were quite upbeat – but some reservations remained as to the sustainability of the long-hoped for “back to normal” stability reached. (Then again, the question was raised of what “back to normal” should mean for an economy that, soon after its accession to the euroarea, managed to slide to near-bankruptcy).
A field where optimist projections abounded was the one of AI and its expected/hoped-for on… almost everything! Starting from the economy and going to all nooks and crannies of the business world but also to areas of government and fields of finance, the promise an AI-fueled future was shining bright. Such murmurs as there were as to what are the prerequisites for such sea-change to be implemented did not succeed to get heard.
Last but not least, climate change was present – but not as intense as earlier. It would seem that the energy crisis has eroded the will to deal in an aggressive way with a problem that is widely considered of existential importance.
Throughout, mention of the Oracle occurred quite often. But forecasting is always more reliable when dealing with the past rather than with the future.
